22 Sept · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1495
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pelka
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1490
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.