22 Sept · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1364
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rolak
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1341
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.