22 Sept · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1500
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1538
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.