23 Sept · 04:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1523
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1554
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 62% (64)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.