23 Sept · 12:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1679
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rutkowski
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1666
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Rutkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.53· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H7-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.