23 Sept · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1490
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gajda
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1458
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.