23 Sept · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇵🇱Maksymilian Rus
ELO 1274
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Madej
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1352
FormLLLLL
41%
59%
🌟Rus rarely covers set handicap as underdog 32% (25)
Fair odds · Madej
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 12%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H25-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-22)