24 Sept · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1681
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Poliniewicz
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1656
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rutkowski🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (15)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.