24 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1468
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kaczmarek
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1435
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~84 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.