24 Sept · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FK
🇵🇱Frantisek Krcil
ELO 1436
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1440
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.