24 Sept · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1345
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1372
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrugala🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 12%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H33-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.