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24 Sep · 18:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1345
3-2Final setsMrugala won
MSMichal Skorski
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1340
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 52%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Michal Skorski favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 76.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Michal Skorski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Michal Skorski −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Michal Skorski.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 56% → final 90%
Michal Skorski ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsMrugala recovered from 36%72 points · 5 games