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24 Sep · 18:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
PGPawel Gasiorski
🇵🇱Pawel Gasiorski
ELO 1759
3-2Final setsGasiorski won
MAMariusz Adamus
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1461
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Gasiorski at 79%. The actual result was Pawel Gasiorski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Pawel Gasiorski favoured — closing 1.16
Favourite won
Total 71.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Pawel Gasiorski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Pawel Gasiorski −8.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.95
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Pawel Gasiorski is favoured to win, below means Mariusz Adamus.

▲ Pawel Gasiorskipre 83% → final 83%
Mariusz Adamus ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsGasiorski recovered from 43%72 points · 5 games