24 Sept · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1350
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrugala
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1340
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.