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26 Sep · 01:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
AMArkadiusz Mugowski
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1393
1-3Final setsStaszczyk won
KSKonrad Staszczyk
🇵🇱Konrad Staszczyk
ELO 1652
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Staszczyk at 77%. The actual result was Konrad Staszczyk 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Konrad Staszczyk favoured — closing 1.22
Favourite won
Set handicap
Konrad Staszczyk −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Konrad Staszczyk −8.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Arkadiusz Mugowski is favoured to win, below means Konrad Staszczyk.

▲ Arkadiusz Mugowskipre 24% → final 1%
Konrad Staszczyk ▼
Biggest swing 26 pts72 points · 4 games