25 Sept · 07:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1640
FormLLLWL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Tkaczyk
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1493
FormLLWWW
66%
34%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 65% (94)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~77 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+147
H2H6-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+147)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-0)