25 Sept · 06:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1622
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kapik
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1612
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kosmal🌟Kosmal goes over total as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.