25 Sept · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1583
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Malachowski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1613
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Malachowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (86)
Fair odds · Malachowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H25-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.