25 Sept · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1687
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Poliniewicz
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1629
FormWLLWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kapik🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (15)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H24-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)