25 Sept · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1593
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kapik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1634
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H79-63
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (79-63)