25 Sept · 08:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1527
FormWLLWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Adamus
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1364
FormLWWWW
67%
33%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 63% (63)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~78 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+163
H2H17-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+163)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-12)