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25 Sep · 08:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1671
3-1Final setsPoliniewicz won
DKDawid Kosmal
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1583
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 55%. The actual result was Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Grzegorz Poliniewicz favoured — closing 1.47
Favourite won
Total 73.5
65 points played
Under
Set handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −5.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.05
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Dawid Kosmal.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 59% → final 99%
Dawid Kosmal ▼
Biggest swing 65 ptsPoliniewicz recovered from 34%63 points · 4 games