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25 Sep · 11:45 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
KKKrzysztof Kapik
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1639
1-3Final setsNowalinski won
MNMaciej Nowalinski
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1703
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Nowalinski at 56%. The actual result was Maciej Nowalinski 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Nowalinski favoured — closing 1.5
Favourite won
Total 75.5
75 points played
Under
Set handicap
Nowalinski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Nowalinski −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Krzysztof Kapik is favoured to win, below means Maciej Nowalinski.

▲ Krzysztof Kapikpre 40% → final 1%
Maciej Nowalinski ▼
Biggest swing 43 pts72 points · 4 games