25 Sept · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1676
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nowalinski
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1703
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as favourite 62% (87)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H36-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.