25 Sept · 15:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1639
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kapik
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1583
FormLLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kosmal🌟Kosmal goes over total as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H9-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-8)