25 Sept · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1444
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1463
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Vincenec goes over total as favourite 70% (50)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.