25 Sept · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1444
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sokolowski
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1437
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron
Fair odds · Sokolowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.