25 Sept · 20:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇵🇱Radoslaw Malinowski
ELO 1412
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Malinowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1403
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Malinowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.