25 Sept · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1329
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Eliasz
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1324
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Eliasz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (20)
Fair odds · Eliasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.