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25 Sep · 20:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mrugala
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1379
3-2Final setsMrugala won
AEAdrian Eliasz
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1320
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mrugala at 56%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Bartlomiej Mrugala favoured — closing 1.7
Favourite won
Total 76.5
87 points played
Over
Set handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Bartlomiej Mrugala −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mrugala is favoured to win, below means Adrian Eliasz.

▲ Bartlomiej Mrugalapre 60% → final 100%
Adrian Eliasz ▼
Biggest swing 85 ptsMrugala recovered from 15%72 points · 5 games