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26 Sep · 02:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MNMichal Natkaniec
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1459
3-1Final setsNatkaniec won
MWMiroslaw Warzecha
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1666
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Warzecha at 84%. The actual result was Michal Natkaniec 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Miroslaw Warzecha favoured — closing 1.2
Upset
Total 69.5
78 points played
Over
Set handicap
Miroslaw Warzecha −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Miroslaw Warzecha −9.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
9.25
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Michal Natkaniec is favoured to win, below means Miroslaw Warzecha.

▲ Michal Natkaniecpre 16% → final 58%
Miroslaw Warzecha ▼
Biggest swing 51 ptsNatkaniec recovered from 7%72 points · 4 games