26 Sept · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1317
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1368
FormLWWWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szoltysek🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)