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26 Sep · 11:50 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BWBartlomiej Wisniewski
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1338
3-1Final setsWisniewski won
KGKrzysztof Guminski
🇵🇱Krzysztof Guminski
ELO 1319
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wisniewski at 50%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Wisniewski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Krzysztof Guminski favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 76.5
74 points played
Under
Set handicap
Krzysztof Guminski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Krzysztof Guminski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.65
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Wisniewski is favoured to win, below means Krzysztof Guminski.

▲ Bartlomiej Wisniewskipre 46% → final 100%
Krzysztof Guminski ▼
Biggest swing 80 ptsWisniewski recovered from 20%72 points · 4 games