26 Sept · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1625
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1639
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H6-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.