26 Sept · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1517
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Slawomir
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1464
FormLLLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kwiatkowski
Fair odds · Slawomir
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)