26 Sept · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1475
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Michalik
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1464
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.