26 Sept · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1575
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Olbrycht
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1625
FormLWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Olbrycht
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)