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26 Sep · 21:55 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1618
2-3Final setsMichalski won
JMJakub Michalski
🇵🇱Jakub Michalski
ELO 1300
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkaczyk at 83%. The actual result was Jakub Michalski 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Henryk Tkaczyk favoured — closing 1.32
Upset
Total 74.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Henryk Tkaczyk −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Henryk Tkaczyk is favoured to win, below means Jakub Michalski.

▲ Henryk Tkaczykpre 87% → final 32%
Jakub Michalski ▼
Biggest swing 84 ptsMichalski recovered from 2%72 points · 5 games