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26 Sep · 22:00 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
GMGrzegorz Mucha
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1517
3-1Final setsMucha won
CPCezary Pawlik
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1653
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Pawlik at 66%. The actual result was Grzegorz Mucha 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Cezary Pawlik favoured — closing 1.37
Upset
Total 74.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Cezary Pawlik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Cezary Pawlik −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Mucha is favoured to win, below means Cezary Pawlik.

▲ Grzegorz Muchapre 36% → final 85%
Cezary Pawlik ▼
Biggest swing 58 ptsMucha recovered from 27%72 points · 4 games