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27 Sep · 05:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BMBartlomiej Mleczko
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1441
3-1Final setsMleczko won
DWDamian Wasilewski
🇵🇱Damian Wasilewski
ELO 1487
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mleczko at 57%. The actual result was Bartlomiej Mleczko 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Damian Wasilewski favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 74.5
83 points played
Over
Set handicap
Damian Wasilewski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Damian Wasilewski −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.1
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartlomiej Mleczko is favoured to win, below means Damian Wasilewski.

▲ Bartlomiej Mleczkopre 54% → final 99%
Damian Wasilewski ▼
Biggest swing 61 ptsMleczko recovered from 38%72 points · 4 games