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28 Sep · 15:25 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MLMiroslaw Lewczuk
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1492
3-1Final setsLewczuk won
KKKacper Kwiatkowski
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1448
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lewczuk at 55%. The actual result was Miroslaw Lewczuk 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Kacper Kwiatkowski favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Set handicap
Kacper Kwiatkowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Kacper Kwiatkowski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.75
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Miroslaw Lewczuk is favoured to win, below means Kacper Kwiatkowski.

▲ Miroslaw Lewczukpre 59% → final 91%
Kacper Kwiatkowski ▼
Biggest swing 63 ptsLewczuk recovered from 34%70 points · 4 games