28 Sept · 00:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1463
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1527
FormLWWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)