28 Sept · 00:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1484
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Urban
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1473
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron🌟Urban goes over total as favourite 68% (63)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H58-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.