28 Sep · 02:00 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
RO
🇵🇱Rafal Ogon
ELO 1198
3-2Final setsOgon won
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1275
What the model said
Before the match, the model favoured Adach at 60%. The actual result was Rafal Ogon 3-2 — the underdog won.
How the markets settled
The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.
Match winner
Rafal Adach favoured — closing 1.45
Total 75.5
104 points played
Set handicap
Rafal Adach −1.5 sets
Points handicap
Rafal Adach −4.5 points
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
Win probability
Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Ogon is favoured to win, below means Rafal Adach.
▲ Rafal Ogonpre 43% → final 87%
Rafal Adach ▼
Biggest swing 56 ptsOgon recovered from 37%72 points · 4 games