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28 Sep · 07:15 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
KKKrzysztof Kapik
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1629
3-1Final setsKapik won
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1675
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 52%. The actual result was Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Grzegorz Poliniewicz favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 79.5
71 points played
Under
Set handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.9
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Krzysztof Kapik is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Poliniewicz.

▲ Krzysztof Kapikpre 44% → final 98%
Grzegorz Poliniewicz ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsKapik recovered from 39%69 points · 4 games