28 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1622
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Staszczyk
KS
🇵🇱Konrad Staszczyk
ELO 1652
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Staszczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.