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28 Sep · 13:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1519
3-2Final setsNiemiec won
PSPawel Slosarczyk
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1386
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Niemiec at 70%. The actual result was Rafal Niemiec 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Niemiec favoured — closing 1.52
Favourite won
Set handicap
Rafal Niemiec −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Rafal Niemiec −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.35
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Niemiec is favoured to win, below means Pawel Slosarczyk.

▲ Rafal Niemiecpre 68% → final 99%
Pawel Slosarczyk ▼
Biggest swing 35 pts55 points · 3 games