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28 Sep · 13:50 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MRMateusz Rutkowski
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1662
3-2Final setsRutkowski won
KKKrzysztof Kapik
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1634
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Rutkowski at 52%. The actual result was Mateusz Rutkowski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Krzysztof Kapik favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 74.5
105 points played
Over
Set handicap
Krzysztof Kapik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Krzysztof Kapik −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
5.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Rutkowski is favoured to win, below means Krzysztof Kapik.

▲ Mateusz Rutkowskipre 49% → final 5%
Krzysztof Kapik ▼
Biggest swing 47 pts56 points · 3 games