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28 Sep · 16:40 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1538
3-0Final setsNiemiec won
WTWojciech Tobiasz
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1382
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Niemiec at 66%. The actual result was Rafal Niemiec 3-0 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Niemiec favoured — closing 1.45
Favourite won
Total 73.5
57 points played
Under
Set handicap
Rafal Niemiec −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Rafal Niemiec −5.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
4.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Niemiec is favoured to win, below means Wojciech Tobiasz.

▲ Rafal Niemiecpre 64% → final 27%
Wojciech Tobiasz ▼
Biggest swing 62 ptsTobiasz recovered from 17%72 points · 5 games