28 Sept · 19:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1490
FormWWWWW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Gesiarz
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1352
FormLLLWL
65%
35%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 63% (54)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~77 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+138
H2H23-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+138)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-5)